Senior Project Day 12

Just finished the report. Need to add a conclusion but the hard part is done. I will also add a title page and a glossary for certain terms that may be unfamiliar to certain readers.

 

Senior Project Day 11

Worked on the weekend and today on the actual report. It has been time consuming, yet very rewarding, as I have finished up the report for Barry Bonds and already working on the final two players as I speak. I am doing my best to make this informal report accessible to more readers, meaning that the report is more on the statistics that people will recognize and be able to follow along, as well as the thought process behind the reasoning and calculations.

Senior Project Day 10

Have finally decided on the approach I will take in finalizing the numbers. Will look at the averages amongst the greats, add and subtract the standard deviation, plot all of those data points on a graph, and see the nice range I get. Then, I will take Barry Bonds' and Sammy Sosa's actual career numbers, and plant them on the same graph, seeing if their numbers fall within those ranges in their so called "clean years." If so, then I believe it would be safe to track and project their numbers into their later years had they not taken steroids. Some stats will be a bit more noticeable than others. Obviously home runs is the biggest stat for sluggers like those two, and more emphasis will be put on the more well-known stats in the report, as to keep it from getting any more complicated for readers who don't consider themselves baseball-savvy and might not be familiar with stats such as On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage.

Senior Project Day 9

Finished up with the 5 All-Time Great players I used as a sample for the other players, and I have to say that the process has been quite surprising. Everyone peaks and declines differently in different ways. Of course, when I started this project, I didn't expect to find a exact numbers for these players, since there's no real way for us to really know what the final stat line would have or could have been. Yet, the more and more I calculate, the less and less I want to settle for a range, but instead find an exact number. I know that's impossible, but it's been on my mind these past few days. After I finished up the calculations by hand, I hit a dead end. The percent decline and standard deviations didn't match smoothly across the 5 players. Some statistics had some very close drops in decline, for example, for Home Runs, Willie Mays, Stan Musial, and Mickey Mantle experienced drops of 48%, 50%, and 50%, where as On Base Percentage decline for Mantle, Musial, Hank Aaron, and Ted Williams were 13%, 12%, 14%, and 16%.

What I'm thinking of doing is averaging out the percentages and finding their own standard deviation in order to set up a a range of percentage declines I can use for the steroid users. At least then, I can see where my calculations land in comparison to their actual values. Microsoft Excel has been an enormous amount of help to me. Once I hit that dead end earlier today, I decided to see if Excel could identify anything I had missed. It did not disappoint. I took the home run averages of Mantle, Musial, Mays, Aaron, and Williams and plotted them on a graph. Then, I found the standard deviation between their actual numbers and the average. I set up data points that made additional lines representing the sum of the average and standard deviation as well as the difference, giving me 3 lines in total. Finally, I decided to plot Barry Bonds' home run totals on the graph as well, to see what his numbers looked in comparison to the 5 legends:

As you can see, it was within the range of the averages, up until the years he supposedly started taking steroids. With this new found information, I'm hoping to use this same analysis for the other statistics as well, and compare them to the actual numbers of Bonds and Sosa.

On an interesting side note, while I was struggling to make a decision as to how to proceed, I decided to look on google for any tips or pointers as to forecasting or projecting a baseball players statistics. I stumbled upon a very interesting article on BaseballProspectus,  detailing the difficulties of forecasting a players stats and what good basic steps a novice like myself could take. Yet, there was something about this article that stuck out to me. More specifically, it was the author:

Senior Project Day 8

Finished creating an excel spreadsheet for each player today. The task was long and monotonous, but well worth the time. Currently trying to experiment with Excel's functions. So far, I've noticed similar numbers amongst the players' decline. Two players had nearly the same % decline in Runs, Hits, Home Runs, Runs Batted In, Batting Average, Slugging Percentage, and On Base Percentage. Got super excited to see that as I did them back-to-back, but was a bit disappointed when the third player didn't follow that same trend, although Home Runs, Batting Average, and Slugging Percentage were still close to the first two. I'm learning a bit about regression analysis from the online statbook, trying to make sense of the numbers Excel spewed out for me. So far, I've been calculating averages of "declining years" comparing them to "peak/prime years" and measuring the percent decline between the two, in addition to calculating the Standard Deviation of the declining years averages and finding out how far percentage wise, the sum or difference of the average and the standard deviation is. My hope was that the standard deviation of the statistics would be similar across the board for all the players, but no such luck. Since the steroid users' stats increased rather than decreased during their so called "declining years" I'm hoping that using the decline of clean players can serve as a good model for declination.

Hank Aaron's Stats Over the Years

The folder containing all of the Excel Spreadsheets of every player.

Regression analysis on Excel...still trying to understand everything.

Mickey Mantle's Stat Analysis Page 1

Mantle's Stat Analysis Page 2

Mantle's Stat Analysis Page 3

Mantle's Stat Analysis Page 4

Mantle's Stat Analysis Page 5

Stan Musial's Stat Analysis Page 1

Musial's Stat Analysis Page 2

Musial's Stat Analysis Page 4

Musial Stat Analysis Page 5

Musial's Stat Analysis Page 6

Senior Project Day 7

Excel is probably my new best friend right now. While I prefer and continue to write a lot of the calculations by hand, Excel has aided me in deciding where I start my own calculations of a player's decline. By just looking at a data table, its hard to determine where exactly the decline of a player begins, or where their prime years are. Some players, like Ted Williams, make it even harder due to the fact that their playing career was interrupted by military service, where most of their supposed "prime" was spent. Thus, it leaves me with data that has weird trends. Also, I also have to consider injuries as well, as I've left off some years of certain players in my calculations because they did not play full seasons some years. So far, I've been comparing declining years versus prime years of the greats, making sure I picked players long before the steroid era. I realized, however, a flaw in my thought process, as I was comparing declining years to the rest of the career when I actually wanted decline vs. peak. Been trying to play around with excel and learn about regression at the same time, though it has been a bit confusing since I've never taken a stats class before. Looking forward to talking to Ms. Ferrara this week in order to discuss how to process and analyze the data I've been given and make good projections/forecasts.

Senior Project Day 5/Weekend/Day6

Senior Project carried over into the weekend for me. I spent it reading the book, The Signal and The Noise by Nate Silver, detailing how predictions are made and why some succeed and others don't. He had a specific chapter on baseball and its obsession with statistics, and even mentioned that he developed a baseball projection system known as PECOTA, that it utilized on a site that I frequently use, BaseballProspectus. Needless to say, I was very surprised, and tried to use it myself. Unfortunately, only subscribers of BaseballProspectus have access to PECOTA, but it is relatively cheap to purchase a month long subscription, so I plan to buy one and see how it works.


 

Senior Project Day 4

Day 4 was a bit detracted by the AP English Exam which lasted from 8-12. I spent the rest of the day in the library and Starbucks as I continued listening to podcasts and reading. Dug around my house to find the old samples that I did in preparation for this project, in order to see how my thought process initially began. I think that I will employ several of the formulas I read about in Understanding Sabermetrics in order to help my calculations. I'm not entirely sure how I'm going to approach my lone pitcher, but I think I'll be able to devise a way for me to calculate Mr. Clemens' stats.

Senior Project Day 3

Had an AP test today, and will also have one tomorrow, so I mostly diverted most of my attention to listening to various podcasts on the rides to and from school. I also began practicing some of my mathematical equations that I picked up from my sabermetrics book. The math can be tricky, but it's fun and will definitely aid me in my calculations. I am hooked on Ken Burns'documentary, The Tenth Inning, as seen in my vlog. So many old clips that I've heard of but never had a chance to see before, right in front of my eyes. Its kind of a nostalgic feeling. Probably not the best comparison, but its as if being blind and being able to finally see. I've only read and heard about these moments, but never was able to visualize them until now. Kind of amazing to say the least. Regardless, the documentary was four hours long, and Burns has another series depicting the history of baseball from the very beginning which spans eighteen and a half hours. Thankfully, its divided into 2 hour episodes, so I'll probably pick only a few to see how the sport became a business and the beginnings of drug use in the sport.

Senior Project Day 2

Day 2 of my senior project followed a similar course to day 1. Mostly just listening to hour long podcasts, as well as beginning Ken Burns documentary, the 10th Inning. I've already finished my book Understanding Sabermetrics: An Introduction to the Science of Baseball Statistics, and I must say, it is quite enlightening, while at the same time, confusing me to no end. I still have a lot to learn about calculating a lot of these statistics myself, but the book definitely will serve as a guide and reference. I'm still plowing through Game of Shadows, learning more and more about my childhood hero, Barry Bonds. Reading about it just makes me sick to my stomach, regarding how much I idolized him as a child.

These podcasts I've been tuning into have made me have second thoughts on my initial position on the recent Hall of Fame ballot, in which no Hall of Famers were inducted. Listening to baseball pundits on the airwaves very much makes me feel like a baseball novice once again, sadly. Nonetheless, they have been invaluable to me in that I need to rethink my position. I also began referring to baseball reference and fangraphs today. Both sites are chock full of baseball statistics and hopefully will make my job easier once I get to the math portion.

Podcasts on Podcasts

Senior Project Day 1

    Day 1 of Senior Project started off quite roughly, as I woke up groggily at my normal time for school, 6 AM. Needless to say, it was less than pleasant. I began the project after breakfast around 6:30 AM, beginning with the book, Game of Shadows. The process was slow and tedious as I carefully took notes and tried my best to remember the key figures of the scandal. In addition, I was able to follow up my discoveries of the first few chapters of the book with a podcast talking about two key figures, Victor Conte and Barry Bonds. After just 1 day of research, I must say that it has answered many questions that I have pondered over the years. Regardless, there is still much work to be done, as the sabermetrics part of my senior project has yet to begin, as I need to finish up the book on Bonds and begin doing some math by hand. This should begin quite soon, and I eagerly look forward to diving into the mathematical part of my project. In addition to doing math, there are quite a few documentaries that I will have to begin watching. There is over 20 hours of  film and audio that I will have to delve into, which I discuss in my Day 1 Vlog.

Propsectus Part 1

Kyle Kabasares

Prospectus

             
     What are the risks of taking anabolic steroids, and what kind of pressures did Major League Baseball players face to resort to using them? Following the 1994–95 Major League Baseball strike, resulting in the cancellation of the 1994 playoffs and World Series, baseball fans throughout the nation were left outraged. Once baseball resumed in 1995, fan attendance had dropped from an average of 31,256 fans per game to 25,008.[1]  The image of the nation’s national pastime became significantly damaged as fans who did attend these games demonstrated their discontent with the players and owners, such as the fans in Pittsburgh who caused a seventeen minute delay by throwing objects onto the field during Opening Day 1995 while the fans in Detroit caused a twelve minute delay while holding up signs that read “Field of Dreams Greed" and "Strike, Owner$ Win, Player$ Win, Fans Lose" on the same day.[2] Suffice to say, fans were not happy with the league, and baseball’s popularity began to plummet in an era that was dominated by a global basketball icon, Michael Jordan.                                                                                                         
   Three years later, in 1998, the game of baseball was purportedly “saved” by two men: Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa.[3] The two of them engaged in a home run race that captivated the nation as they began swinging for the fences, and ultimately the single-season home run record, of 61 home runs. The record had been set in 1961 by Yankees slugger Roger Maris, who had endured harsh criticism and threats leading up to him breaking Babe Ruth’s record of 60. On September 8, 1998, Mark McGwire lined his 62^nd home run over Busch Stadium’s left field wall, breaking Maris’s thirty-seven year old record. Once 1998 was over, McGwire had finished with 70 home runs while Sosa trailed closely behind with 66. The task of breaking the new mark of 70 seemed impossible at the time, except maybe for McGwire and Sosa. It would not take another thirty-seven years to find a new record holder, but instead merely three. In 2001, Barry Bonds of the San Francisco Giants slugged 73 home runs to become the new and current holder of the record. The numbers these baseball players were putting up were mind-boggling, as everyone looked on with awe as these players were making their case for a Hall of Fame bid. Fans were completely desensitized to the sure impossibility of the numbers. These numbers were too good to be true. Too good.                                                                                                              

---

[1] Associated Press (August 10, 2004). "1994 strike was a low point for baseball". ESPN.com. Retrieved September 21, 2012.

[2] "Baseball The Tenth Inning: Millionaires vs. Billionaires | PBS." PBS: Public Broadcasting Service. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Mar. 2013. <http://www.pbs.org/baseball-the-tenth-inning/dark-days/millionaires-vs-billionaires/>.

[3] "Myth of men who saved baseball - The New York Times." The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia. N.p., n.d. Web. 22 Mar. 2013. <http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/29/sports/29iht-fans.html>.

Plans

So for my resources I have identified several books and documentaries that I can use. I am eager to begin my research, as I love reading/watching baseball. I already do baseball research in my free time , so I'm excited to have dedicated time for something I already love to do. I need to send several emails out and make several calls, as I need to make sure I have viable options for internships. Also, I need to study a bit of statistics in order to make my statistical reports.

Conflicts and Next Steps

Conflicts that will arise during my Senior Project in terms of scheduling will be my AP classes: Physics, Calculus, and English. I have at least two of those classes every day from Monday-Friday, and the exam days are May 8, 9, and 13.

One thing that I need to do before progressing with my senior project is to find out if an internship with the SF Giants will be at all possible. 

Senior Project Notes

Two ideas that I brainstormed earlier this year included studying the effects of steroids and the pressure that athletes face to use them, and trying my hand at photojournalism. Both of these options seemed to be doable and realistic from my peers' perspectives, and that studying the effects of steroids had a good public purpose. I am still unsure as to how I would approach this topic, but ideas I had in mind included interviewing doctors, watching documentaries, and reading books in order to learn as much about the subject as I can. On the other hand, photojournalism intrigues me as I have just gotten into photography this year, and I feel that it could be an enlightening experience to learn how photojournalists play a role in news coverage in our world.